Gaurav Chakraborty
Gaurav Chakraborty

Orowealth Weekend Reads: September 13, 2020


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Rating agency ICRA opines that banks and non-banking companies will restructure up to Rs 10 trillion in debt under the one-time debt restructuring scheme announced by the RBI. The quantum of debt forms 8% of outstanding loans. While banks have a loan book of Rs 100 trillion, non-banking companies carry Rs 35 trillion on theirs. Sectors that are expected to avail restructuring include hospitality, real estate, textile, and travel and tourism, among others which operate on high leverage. The agency said that its estimate of debt recast is based on the assumption that the overall loans under moratorium fell to 20-25% by the end of the relief window in August. The rating agency believes that the portion of overall loans under moratorium will decline to 15% by the end of September. ICRA’s estimate comes on the heels of the K.V. Kamath committee’s recommendations on financial parameters that banks are advised to follow while recasting the debt of sectors hurt by the coronavirus pandemic. The metrics include total outside liabilities to the adjusted tangible net worth (TOL/ATNW), current ratio, total debt/EBITDA, average debt service coverage ratio, and debt service coverage ratio.

Takeaway –
Though ICRA feels that lenders would be able to adhere to the TOL/ATNW metric immediately, it sees some sectors struggling to meet other parameters like total debt to operating profit, debt service coverage ratio, and average debt service coverage ratio.

The price of Brent crude fell below the $40 a barrel mark this week – the first time since late June – because of dampening demand and weak stocks. Factors like the stalling of Asia’s economic recovery, the end of the summer driving season in the US, and increased oil supply point to a weak outlook for oil prices in the short term. Most Asian refiners are not interested in partaking in supply cheats like Saudi Arabia deciding to cut prices for October and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. the following suit. The prices have been cut owing to sluggish demand which has remained below pre-pandemic levels. The breaking of the key psychological barrier of $40 a barrel comes after nearly two months of range-bound trading for the commodity. Bank of America Merrill Lynch says that global oil demand will take three years to recover from the coronavirus outbreak that too if we successfully discover a vaccine or find a cure. Apart from fundamental factors, technical indicators are also hinting at selling pressure on oil prices with Brent crude staying just above its 100-day moving average. The ongoing tussle between the US and China – the world’s largest importer of oil – is also putting downward pressure on prices.

Takeaway –
The difference between the two nearest December oil futures contracts indicates the strength of the market has weakened for both Brent and WTI.


Best Time to Invest in Mutual Funds?

Mutual funds are touted to be one of the best investment options for people seeking financial stability, with the moderate market risk involved. While that is true, investing in mutual funds is an art – you need to understand the right time for investment as well as have a strategy for portfolio diversification.

“The most difficult thing is the decision to act, the rest is merely tenacity.” – Amelia Earhart
Chosen by Abhishek – Orowealth.

Gaurav Chakraborty
Gaurav Chakraborty

Gaurav is an engineer-turned-digital marketeer. Also a personal finance blogger with experience in financial planning and crowdfunding sector. He is a part of the Marketing team at Orowealth.

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